Modern Methods of Schedule Risk Analysis

Early methods of quantifying risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation placed probability distributions directly on activity durations. Developments in the last 10 years have allowed us to model risks much more specifically and intelligently. New methods for analyzing the impact of risk on a project’s schedule were introduced, including (1) distinguish uncertainty and project-specific risks, (2) apply risks to multiple activities (or categories of activities), (3) apply risks in series and in parallel, (4) model how duration correlation occurs, and (5) prioritize risks for focused risk mitigation.

Presented on May 2nd at the 2017 Large Facilities Workshop.

David Hulett

FAACE, Hulett & Associates, LLC